June trade figures released overnight confirmed that Japanese export engine has been turned off as export growth has slowed sharply in Q2 08. Net foreign trade has been a substantial drag on growth in Q2 and we now feel confident that GDP growth will be negative in Q2 and likely more negative than our current fore-cast of -0.1% q/q GDP growth in Q2. Based on today´s trade figures -0.3% q/q seems more likely.
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