Economy

I sure hope that there is a mistake with the data...because if it isn't, it's just terrible news. The BLS just came out with its data on usual weekly earnings for wage and salary workers for the second quarter of... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told BusinessWeek editors on July 21 that he think it will take months, not years, to work through "the largest part of the housing correction." Paulson said that while some of the excesses in housing will... [visit website]

Back on Dec 12, 2007, I announced here that I had shifted some money from equities to money market funds. As it turned out, that was a reasonably good call, with the S&P down 16% since then. Now I'm almost... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.I sure hope that there is a mistake with the data...because if it isn't, it's just terrible news. The BLS just came out with its data on usual weekly earnings for wage and salary workers for the second quarter of... [visit website]

Repeat after me..services inflation is slowing, not rising. In particular, producer price inflation in the "traditional service industries" is only 0.6%, on a year over year basis, down from 1.8% in December. But you would never know this, from the... [visit website]

Maybe I'm crazy, but this morning's CPI number actually improves the odds of deflation sometime in the next year. According to the BLS, consumer prices went up 1.1% in June--just for that month. And CPI is up an astounding 5%... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Back on Dec 12, 2007, I announced here that I had shifted some money from equities to money market funds. As it turned out, that was a reasonably good call, with the S&P down 16% since then. Now I'm almost... [visit website]

Investors figured out today that the Paulson/Bernanke rescue plan is not going to save Fannie and Freddie in their current form as private companies. The stock of the two companies dropped--5% for Fannie and 8% for Freddie--while Freddie had a... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Repeat after me..services inflation is slowing, not rising. In particular, producer price inflation in the "traditional service industries" is only 0.6%, on a year over year basis, down from 1.8% in December. But you would never know this, from the... [visit website]

What we saw this weekend was the world's biggest temporary sandbag. With the waters rising and about to swallow Freddie and Fannie, Paulson and Bernanke stepped in with--what? A bunch of promises. The Fed promised Freddie and Fannie access to... [visit website]

A year from now, will we be talking about galloping inflation or a plunge into deflation? I think the odds favor deflation, or at least lower inflation. Housing is in free-fall, and with the European economy weakening, we are looking... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Investors figured out today that the Paulson/Bernanke rescue plan is not going to save Fannie and Freddie in their current form as private companies. The stock of the two companies dropped--5% for Fannie and 8% for Freddie--while Freddie had a... [visit website]

This morning's employment reports show a pervasive and broad weakness in the labor market. And frankly, I think the situation is actually considerably worse than the numbers show. Let's take a closer look. Construction, manufacturing, retail, wholesale, transportation, information, financial... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.What we saw this weekend was the world's biggest temporary sandbag. With the waters rising and about to swallow Freddie and Fannie, Paulson and Bernanke stepped in with--what? A bunch of promises. The Fed promised Freddie and Fannie access to... [visit website]

This is the chart I was doing when I found the mistake in the previous post. It shows the share of retail sales growth coming from e-commerce (leaving out gasoline station and fuel oil dealers). Until recently, e-commerce accounted for... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.This morning's employment reports show a pervasive and broad weakness in the labor market. And frankly, I think the situation is actually considerably worse than the numbers show. Let's take a closer look. Construction, manufacturing, retail, wholesale, transportation, information, financial... [visit website]

Well...I didn't expect such an, um, overwhelming response to my previous post. I will get to everyone's comments. But first let me respond to the people who worried that e-commerce was too small to make a difference. In fact, over... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.This is the chart I was doing when I found the mistake in the previous post. It shows the share of retail sales growth coming from e-commerce (leaving out gasoline station and fuel oil dealers). Until recently, e-commerce accounted for... [visit website]

Today's consumer spending numbers look pretty good, don't they? Up 0.8%, more than economists expected. Sounds like those U.S. households just keep spending, no matter how depressed they are. But guess what? Those numbers have a hole big enough to... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Well...I didn't expect such an, um, overwhelming response to my previous post. I will get to everyone's comments. But first let me respond to the people who worried that e-commerce was too small to make a difference. In fact, over... [visit website]

Is the Fed living in a fairy-tale world? Unemployment is rising, housing prices are plunging, and oil prices are sky-high. Oh, yes, and consumer expectations of their future economic prospects are at a record low, according to the Conference Board.... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Today's consumer spending numbers look pretty good, don't they? Up 0.8%, more than economists expected. Sounds like those U.S. households just keep spending, no matter how depressed they are. But guess what? Those numbers have a hole big enough to... [visit website]

...are supposedly up 1%,with gains in virtually every category. You will forgive me a snort of disbelief. Something is simply not right here. Let me review the situation. The housing market is in free fall; household wealth is down; real... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.Is the Fed living in a fairy-tale world? Unemployment is rising, housing prices are plunging, and oil prices are sky-high. Oh, yes, and consumer expectations of their future economic prospects are at a record low, according to the Conference Board.... [visit website]

I am a connoisseur of statistical discrepancies--and I've found a big one in the savings data that I still don't understand. This is going to be extremely wonky--you are forewarned. We all know that the personal savings rate has stayed... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts....are supposedly up 1%,with gains in virtually every category. You will forgive me a snort of disbelief. Something is simply not right here. Let me review the situation. The housing market is in free fall; household wealth is down; real... [visit website]

As shown by my last couple of posts, I've been skeptical of the upbeat "no recession" story that many economists and journalists have been putting out. This morning's jobs report confirms my sense that we have at least one more... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.I am a connoisseur of statistical discrepancies--and I've found a big one in the savings data that I still don't understand. This is going to be extremely wonky--you are forewarned. We all know that the personal savings rate has stayed... [visit website]

What is wrong with this picture? real change in retail trade April08/april 07 U.S. 1.1% Europe 15 -2.9% Europe 27 -0.8% April08/Dec07 U.S. -0.3% Europe 15 -1.2% Europe 27 -0.2% How can it be that the U.S., pounded hard by... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.As shown by my last couple of posts, I've been skeptical of the upbeat "no recession" story that many economists and journalists have been putting out. This morning's jobs report confirms my sense that we have at least one more... [visit website]

First, an apology for not blogging for a bit...I've been caught up in other things. But now I'm back in the saddle again... I've been eyeing the retail sales numbers for a while now, and worrying about their accuracy. Here's... [visit website]

Read the world economy blog for global economic issues. Stay up to date on economic analysis, and read updated economic commentary from industry experts.What is wrong with this picture? real change in retail trade April08/april 07 U.S. 1.1% Europe 15 -2.9% Europe 27 -0.8% April08/Dec07 U.S. -0.3% Europe 15 -1.2% Europe 27 -0.2% How can it be that the U.S., pounded hard by... [visit website]